|
3.1. Consolidation
figures
3.1.1. Symmetric
triangles
Apart from channels, it is important to
notice that trend line associations are not necessarily
parallel. It is possible to have other significant figures
appear, the most common being triangles. These do not
constitute trend figures, but consolidation
ones.
Symmetric triangle figures (cf. graph
below) are the most frequently used. They are formed by a
downward resistance line and an upward support
line. The spot price thus comes bumping against the upper
line and landing on the lower line, in smaller and smaller
moves due to the crossing of both trend lines. The more often
the price comes on both lines, the more valid the figure is
(the minimum being of course two impacts so as to determine
the lines orientation).
This figure is quite common in the
case of long term trends. That is, the exit direction
when the figure is broken is in the continuation of the
entry direction. This exit normally occurs before the top
of the triangle, usually near three quarters of its
length (measured from the impact on the second trend line).
The form of the figure itself, getting narrower, explains that
the power “accumulated” by the stock suddenly appears at the
end of the figure, the share moving considerably, often with
much higher volumes.
With this formation too, it is possible
to determine targets. Indeed, it is often standing, in
the case of an upward consolidation, on the parallel line to
the support line going through the first impact point
(resistance line). Another target corresponds to the
triangle height used at the exit point. In both cases,
this level has to be reached before the date corresponding to
the top of the triangle (cf. graph)

3.1.2. Flag
Another consolidation form exists,
under the form of a channel, called flag. It
corresponds to a slightly decreasing channel (in the
case of an upward trend) or a slightly increasing
channel (in the case of a downward trend). In terms of
targets, this figure often occurs in the middle of a
trend, which means that one can move the height of the
segment preceding the flag to the exit of the
figure.
3.2.1. Double tops and double
bottoms
The preceding figures are all related to
trend lines so as to delimit them. Still, other figures exist,
called formal figures, which are defined by their
sole appearance.
They then are reversal figures:
the stock trend is reversing on these levels. The most
significant of these figures is the double top (on the
upside) and the double bottom (on the
downside). As shown below, these formations correspond
to two consecutive tops (or bottoms).
These figures are often characterized by
lower volumes during the second extreme, showing the
decreasing interest of investors and the expectation of a
trend reversal.
In terms of target, it can be
found by moving the height of the double top (or
bottom) figure itself at the level of the end of the
figure (cf. graph).
3.2.2.
Head-and-shoulders
From this figure head-and-shoulders is
derived. This expression comes from the form of the figure,
showing three consecutive tops, the first one and the
third one being of the same height while the second one is
higher (cf. graph).
The main element of this figure is what
is called “neckline”, corresponding to a horizontal
line joining the low points of the second top. Indeed,
this figures often characterizes a trend
reversal.
Up to the second top (head), the stock is
standing on a bullish trend, which is broken down by drawing
the second shoulder. It then reaches a downward trend, which
is confirmed by the crossing down of the neckline after the
second shoulder.
Still, one can often have a phenomenon
called “pull back”, corresponding to a return of the
price right under the neckline. This return often
corresponds to a technical rebound, as it often occurs
in low volumes.
More precisely, the appearance of the top
(head) can be forecasted whenever volumes significantly fall,
standing at a lower level compared to volumes reached during
the first shoulder.
In terms of target, it is
calculated just as the double top, by moving the figure
height (head height relatively to the neckline) at the
end of the figure (crossing down of the neckline). Of
course, a symmetric figure can be drawn on the downside. It is
then called reverse head-and-shoulders.
|